Saturday, October 31, 2009
Principles of insurance
Commercially insurable risks typically share seven common characteristics.
1. A large number of homogeneous exposure units. The vast majority of insurance policies are provided for individual members of very large classes. Automobile insurance, for example, covered about 175 million automobiles in the United States in 2004. The existence of a large number of homogeneous exposure units allows insurers to benefit from the so-called “law of large numbers,” which in effect states that as the number of exposure units increases, proportionally the actual results are increasingly likely to become close to expected proportions. There are exceptions to this criterion. Lloyd's of London is famous for insuring the life or health of actors, actresses and sports figures. Satellite Launch insurance covers events that are infrequent. Large commercial property policies may insure exceptional properties for which there are no ‘homogeneous’ exposure units. Despite failing on this criterion, many exposures like these are generally considered to be insurable.
2. Definite Loss. The event that gives rise to the loss that is subject to the insured, at least in principle, take place at a known time, in a known place, and from a known cause. The classic example is death of an insured person on a life insurance policy. Fire, automobile accidents, and worker injuries may all easily meet this criterion. Other types of losses may only be definite in theory. Occupational disease, for instance, may involve prolonged exposure to injurious conditions where no specific time, place or cause is identifiable. Ideally, the time, place and cause of a loss should be clear enough that a reasonable person, with sufficient information, could objectively verify all three elements.
3. Accidental Loss. The event that constitutes the trigger of a claim should be fortuitous, or at least outside the control of the beneficiary of the insurance. The loss should be ‘pure,’ in the sense that it results from an event for which there is only the opportunity for cost. Events that contain speculative elements, such as ordinary business risks, are generally not considered insurable.
4. Large Loss. The size of the loss must be meaningful from the perspective of the insured. Insurance premiums need to cover both the expected cost of losses, plus the cost of issuing and administering the policy, adjusting losses, and supplying the capital needed to reasonably assure that the insurer will be able to pay claims. For small losses these latter costs may be several times the size of the expected cost of losses. There is little point in paying such costs unless the protection offered has real value to a buyer.
5. Affordable Premium. If the likelihood of an insured event is so high, or the cost of the event so large, that the resulting premium is large relative to the amount of protection offered, it is not likely that anyone will buy insurance, even if on offer. Further, as the accounting profession formally recognizes in financial accounting standards, the premium cannot be so large that there is not a reasonable chance of a significant loss to the insurer. If there is no such chance of loss, the transaction may have the form of insurance, but not the substance. (See the U.S. Financial Accounting Standards Board standard number 113)
6. Calculable Loss. There are two elements that must be at least estimable, if not formally calculable: the probability of loss, and the attendant cost. Probability of loss is generally an empirical exercise, while cost has more to do with the ability of a reasonable person in possession of a copy of the insurance policy and a proof of loss associated with a claim presented under that policy to make a reasonably definite and objective evaluation of the amount of the loss recoverable as a result of the claim.
Saturday, October 24, 2009
Cell, Tumor, and Stem Cell Biology
In vivo, Noninvasive, Label-Free Detection and Eradication of Circulating Metastatic Melanoma Cells Using Two-Color Photoacoustic Flow Cytometry with a Diode Laser
Key Words: circulating tumor cells • melanoma • photoacoustic detection
The circulating tumor cell (CTC) count has been shown as a prognostic marker for metastasis development. However, its clinical utility for metastasis prevention remains unclear, because metastases may already be present at the time of initial diagnosis with existing assays. Their sensitivity ex vivo is limited by a small blood sample volume, whereas in vivo examination of larger blood volumes may be clinically restricted by the toxicity of labels used for targeting of CTCs. We introduce a method for in vivo photoacoustic blood cancer testing with a high-pulse-repetition-rate diode laser that, when applied to melanoma, is free of this limitation. It uses the overexpression of melanin clusters as intrinsic, spectrally-specific cancer markers and signal amplifiers, thus providing higher photoacoustic contrast of melanoma cells compared with a blood background. In tumor-bearing mouse models and melanoma-spiked human blood samples, we showed a sensitivity level of 1 CTC/mL with the potential to improve this sensitivity 103-fold in humans in vivo, which is impossible with existing assays. Additional advances of this platform include decreased background signals from blood through changes in its oxygenation, osmolarity, and hematocrit within physiologic norms, assessment of CTCs in deep vessels, in vivo CTC enrichment, and photoacoustic-guided photothermal ablation of CTCs in the bloodstream. These advances make feasible the early diagnosis of melanoma during the initial parallel progression of primary tumor and CTCs, and laser blood purging using noninvasive or hemodialysis-like schematics for the prevention of metastasis.
Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Today Forex Update :-
Sterling climbs further, approaching 1.6600
The Pound continues rallying on the back of BoE minutes and, after having confirmed above 1.6500, the Pound has reached 1.6590, right below 1.6600. The Pound has broken 1.6435 Fibonacci resistance and, according to Karen Jones, technical analyst at Commerzbank, targets 1.6745/70.
EUR/USD: Euro recovery, capped at 1.4965 level
Euro recovery from 1.4880 support area has been capped at 1.4965 resistance (Oct 15 and 16 high), ad the Euro has eased to levels around 1.4935 at the moment of writing.
On a wider perspective, decline from 1.4995 high yesterday is corrective in nature, according to Stoyan Mihaylov, technical analyst at Deltastock.com: "Although there was a downward attempt, bottoming at 1.4883, the pattern below 1.4993 seems rather corrective in nature and our target at 1.5104 remains unchanged. Crucial on the downside is 1.4828 support."
Initial resistance at the moment, lies at 1.4970 (Oct 15 and 16 high), and above here, 1.4995/00 (Oct 20 high) and 1.5020. On the downside, support levels lie at 1.4880 (Oct 20 low), and below here, 1.4860 and 1.4825 (Oct 18 low).